Axiom ResearchAustralian Mortgage Stress Index
A national indicator of mortgage stress across Australian households, helping professionals understand emerging fragility in the mortgage system.
AMSI remained in AMBER at 44.9. Conditions worsened month-on-month (1.2 pts). Mortgage Rate was the main upward driver. Cash Rate contributed most to overall stress level.
Vs prior month: +1.2 pts (+2.6%)
Historical context: Highest in the available history
Formal release note: March 2026
Macro context
Reference indicators alongside the index. Maintained separately from the AMSI snapshot file. Reference period 18 March 2026.
Estimated borrower fragility distribution
Model-implied shares across the same four bands as the headline index (Stable through Severe Stress).
Estimated borrowers under stress: 79.6%
Estimated distribution derived from the Axiom macro stress model using national mortgage market conditions.
Drivers of current stress
Largest contributions to the present reading, from the published indicator set.
- Cash Rate(RBA)
- Mortgage Rate(RBA)
- Arrears Rate(APRA)
Historical trajectory
Monthly AMSI (0–100) through time. Published months use the same methodology as the current reading; earlier points may rely on model backfill where archives are absent.
Chart
Same 0–100 scale as the headline index.
Index position
Snapshot inputs
Values behind the current published AMSI. As of 18 March 2026.
- Cash Rate4.1 %RBA
- Mortgage Rate6.25 %RBA
- Inflation (CPI)3.1 %ABS
- Unemployment4.2 %ABS
- Wage Growth3.8 %ABS
- House Price Growth4.5 % YoYPropTrack
- Arrears Rate1.2 %APRA
- Household Savings Buffer12.8 monthsRBA
Stress momentum (MSM3)
Three-month average change in the index.
Not published for this release (insufficient history in the archive or not stored in the snapshot file).
Monthly baseline readings for the series shown on this page.
| Date | AMSI | MSM3 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 March 2026 | 44.9 | — |